Scenario Dynamics – anticipating industry futures.

This presentation consists of 3 papers (combined into one file) that were presented as a panel session at the Strategic Management Society Conference in Paris in September 2002. This is an Acrobat PDF file of slides plus supporting notes.

Request a copy of this free document through our online shop

Related item: Strategy Dynamics Executive summary - read now - 5 pages or download To download, right click on link and select save target as.

Session 1 - Kim Warren - London Business School and Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd

Kim starts by describing in generic terms the requirements for a reliable, fact-based approach to exploring industry futures.

Sessions 2 and 3 describe two contrasting applications of the approach, each of which illustrates distinctive features that may arise in different cases. Both cases present challenging situations for top management wishing to understand and influence both their own prospects and the industry environment in which they operate.

Session 2 - James Penney - Darwin Consulting www.darwinconsulting.co.uk

The 'chip migration' case addresses a substantial challenge facing Visa International, especially in its Central Europe, Middle East and Africa region (CEMEA). Whilst there are advantages for the credit card industry to replace cards based on magnetic-stripe technology with cards featuring built-in microchips, it is costly for any group of banks or merchants to take the lead. Visa’s challenge, then, is how to kick-start the migration process.

Session 3 - Lars Finskud - Vanguard Brand Management www.VanguardStrategy.com

Firms in the pharmaceuticals industry have an especially intense need to anticipate and drive changes in their industry, since the high-value segment of each product’s life is limited to the period of its patent protection. Moreover, several groups have to be persuaded to migrate to new generations of therapy (doctors, patients, health-management organisations).

Organisations wishing to build strategy have traditionally adopted forecasting or scenario descriptions of the future they expect to face. But a more useful approach would combine the fact-base of forecasting with the comprehensiveness of scenarios plus critically reflect the continuing interaction between the business and its environment. Firms such as Nike, Disney, News International and so on don't simply forecast the future, they make it happen.

The presentation shows in summary how the Strategy Dynamics framework can be adapted to capture industry futures. It illustrates the approach with the real story of a traditional branch-based retail bank, who, faced with apparently irresistible attacks from energetic new e-banks, built on its existing resource-base to drive business growth rather than collapse. Not only did this initiative build its own future, it also altered (for the worse) the future for the e-banks who had hoped to exploit its perceived weakness. The retail banking sector today, then, is a very different world than it would have been without this firm's strategic efforts.

Request a copy of this free document through our online shop