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What is Strategy Dynamics?
This page presumes you have an understanding of what strategy is - if not take a
look at what is strategy, first.
Strategy Dynamics explains how business performance has developed up to the current
date, and how to develop and implement strategies to improve future performance.
The approach emphasises building and sustaining the resources and capabilities needed
to succeed.
Focus on performance over time.
The ultimate concern of strategic management is to quantitatively improve performance
through time, sustainably. This can apply to the enterprise as a whole, or for a
key function of interest [e.g. sales]. This means answering some challenging questions:
- Why is performance following its current path?
- Where will performance go if we continue as we are doing today?
- How can we design a robust strategy to radically improve that performance
into the future?
This exhibit shows how these questions look for Starbucks after the difficulties
it experienced in 2007/8.
The trajectory that performance is following at any time depends, strongly and unavoidably,
on what has occurred over the organization's history. The method therefore starts
from a time-chart of the organization's performance over its relevant history, and
into the future, as measured by one or more conventional indicators [e.g. revenue
or profits].
So how is it used?
Starting from the view of looking at how performance is changing over time, the
method works logically through three stages.
Rather than seek statistical explanations for performance, the method drills
back along a logical causal chain, asking and answering 'what causes what?'. For example:
Revenue = sales volume x price
Costs = salaries + sales & marketing + R&D
etc.
Each element is mapped on a diagram, whether on paper, white-board or in software.
Any non-constant item, such as the performance outcome itself, is shown with a time-chart
of its past values, and estimated into the future.
After a few steps, this drill-back process reaches one or more 'resources', known
technically as 'accumulating asset-stocks'. These resources have a very specific
behavior - they fill up and drain away over time. Customers, cash, people, product
range, and capacity are the most common examples. The Logical causality rule still
applies. Sales volume = customers x sales-per-customer. Total salaries = staff x
average salary.
The next element of the method is critical - the current quantity of any resource
is not 'caused' by any other factor, but is mathematically identical to the sum
of everything ever added, minus everything ever lost. This is easy to see in the
case of cash:
Cash-today is equal to all cash that was ever received, minus all
cash that was ever spent But this is equally true of every other asset-stock, i.e.
resources. The number of customers today is equal to every customer that was ever
won, minus every customer that was ever lost. There is
no other reliable explanation for that number. It cannot be estimated
from marketing spend, price levels, number of competitors or anything else, because
it is 100.0% explained by historic gains and losses - and if you can't explain 'customers'
with other factors, then you can't explain anything that depends on customers either,
e.g. revenues and profits! Following the same logic, today's staff is the sum of
every person ever hired, minus every person ever lost. Today's product range is
the sum of every product we ever launched, minus every product we ever discontinued.
This is why today's performance and future performance are both unavoidably dependent
on history.
The final question of causality we need to answer is what has been driving these
'flow-rates' for each resource - how quickly customers have been won, or how quickly
staff were lost, for example. These flow-rates turn out to depend upon:
- Management Decisions [e.g. the amount of money spent on marketing
drives the customer win-rate. The salaries offered are influencing staff attrition.
- External Factors [e.g. other firms' marketing or salaries, or customers'
disposable income], and crucially also upon
- Existing Resource-levels [e.g. customer loss rates depend on service
quality, which depends on adequate staff numbers]. All of this is populated with
quantitative time-path information.
When combined, the principles create an integrated diagram that depicts the 'physics'
of the system, known as the 'strategic architecture' and how this system determines
performance through time. These pictures are very similar to the flow-charts
found in chemical process plants or power-transmission systems, for example. These
display not only a diagram of the system, but also where material or objects are
located, how quickly they are moving and what human controls are acting on to make
the system perform as we want.
Once this core architecture is complete, whether for a business, a part of a business,
or any other organization, additional factors can be added by extending the same
principles. These include:
- the role of 'potential' resources [e.g. likely customers]
- the various development-states of resources [e.g. junior, middle,
senior staff, or products in research, development and launched]
- the impact of intangible factors - how reputation affects customer
acquisition, or how morale influences staff turnover.
- competitive rivalry for resources, such as the likely rate at which
rivals may win a newly-developing customer segment.
- the impact of organizational capabilities, and how they can be developed.
The origin of Strategy Dynamics.
The underlying science of the method is known as System Dynamics originated by Prof Jay Forrester at MIT
in the 1960s. The three principles above apply far more widely than to businesses
or even organizations alone. They explain how many kinds of situation behave over
time - in ecology, economics, biology, and so on. What strategy dynamics does is
expose these same principles as they operate in the case of a resource-based perspective
of organizations and strategy. For more on this connection, see the Wikipedia page on strategy dynamics. The strategy dynamics
method also differs from 'Systems Thinking' approaches [Peter Senge, 1990, The Fifth
Discipline, Doubleday] in emphasizing resource-accumulation and the importance of
quantifying change-through-time, in contrast to the qualitative, feedback orientation
of systems thinking.
Benefits of Strategy Dynamics.
- The method works for every kind of enterprise - commercial, public-service,
or voluntary - as well as to every function within an enterprise.
- It is also applicable to not yet existing enterprises, such as new
ventures or voluntary initiatives.
- The method is strongly evidence-based and rigorous, offering a solid
understanding of what causes current performance and confidence in the future performance.
- Since it highlights exactly where management actions and decisions
exert control, it provides clear and specific strategies and action plans, that
can be adapted as the future unfolds.
- The method is evidence-based, so it can solve differences of opinion
amongst team-members. Also it allows each individual, both amongst the management
team and in the wider organization beyond, to see where their activity contributes
to the whole, and on whom they depend.
- The method provides a solid foundation for methods such as the Balanced
Scorecard and Value Based Management, and is a means of integrating other established
strategy frameworks and approaches, such as PEST, Core Competence and Value Chain.
These benefits do not come for free, however. The method takes time and effort,
but not excessively so, given the value that can be had from improved strategies
and decisions. There are significant limits to the reliable measurement of some
items that limit the certainty the method can offer, e.g. measures for reputation
or capability, and to some important causal relationships, e.g. to what extent reputation
influences the rate of customer acquisition.
To have the greatest impact, the method needs extensive factual evidence, including
history, about many aspects of the enterprise and its performance. Frequently, these
key numbers are unknown, in which case the team must be prepared to exercise its
judgment in estimating what those missing values might be, and what impact they
may have. The approach also depends on management's willingness and ability to be
quantitative in their decision-making, which not all cultures find easy.
Strategy Dynamics is simple but not easy...
Like many powerful frameworks strategy dynamics can be described as "simple but not easy".
Reading the outline on the how is it used tab above the
process appears straightforward but it is necessary to understand the approach in a lot more detail
before being able to apply it.
In addition to our Microworlds (business simulations) which demonstrate running a business with the help of strategic architectures,
and the mystrategy software tool for strategy planning we have a variety of resources to help you develop
a deeper understanding of the approach including:
Note: items marked Free* are available if you have free basic registration and are logged-on to the site.
| Resource | Cost |
Time |
| Chapter summaries of the textbook: A brief introduction and list of key issues addressed. Find these on the Intro /
Chapter summary tab for each chapter in our SMD resources. |
Free |
15-20 min |
| Kim Warren's presentation recorded on
acceptance of the Jay W Forrester Prize for System
Dynamics that includes a demonstration of the application of the approach. |
Free* |
Total time 60 min |
Recorded webinar: Kim Warren demonstrates
insights from strategy dynamics. This includes a brief summary of the approach and some examples of use. [LINK o/s in beta site]
|
Free* | 64 Minutes |
| The full course: Mastering Strategy Dynamics Available with or without additional assistance
in application of the approach to your own case |
£600 or £1,200 depending on option selected | Around 50 hours study |
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Jim McDonnell, partner in PricewaterhouseCoopers strategy practice says ... " the challenge our people face in working on
strategy is the existence of too much data, but not enough insight....[They] use strategy dynamics to cut through the detail
from the start of their work. As a result, they are able to raise questions and identify issues
with much greater insight than they have previously been able to do"
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